需求提前期分布对供应链牛鞭效应的影响分析

Impacts of demand lead time distribution on bullwhip effect

为研究需求提前期在节点企业之间的不同分布对供应链牛鞭效应的影响,构建了基于时间序列自适应过滤预测和指数平滑预测方法所得出的多节点企业供应链条件下牛鞭效应的一般数学模型,并据此模型从理论和实证两方面进行了说明,所得结论为企业通过合理计划需求提前期和实现供应链网络重构来减小供应链牛鞭效应提供了参考。

To analyze the impacts of demand lead time distribution among stages in a supply chain on the bullwhip effect, the general mathematical models based on self-adaptive filtering forecast and exponential smoothing forecast methods, which quantifying the bullwhip effect in a multistage supply chain, were brought forward. It was also indicated from theoretical and numerical analysis that, if the total lead time of all stages in a supply chain was fixed and demand information was not shared among all stages, the demand variation of top upstream stage was changed with the different lead time distribution among all stages. As a result, it was concluded that enterprises could appropriately schedule demand lead time and reconstruct supply chain network to reduce bullwhip effect.