我国互联网用户数预测研究

Study on forecast of Internet users in China

文章研究了利用Bass模型预测我国互联网用户数的方法。首先对Bass模型进行了描述,然后通过已有数据确定了Bass模型参数,最后利用该模型预测了我国互联网用户数并进行了误差分析。从预测结果中可以大致看出我国互联网用户达到饱和的时间,为今后带宽的预测打下了基础。文章最后给出了Bass模型的适用范围与参数确定方法,同时也提出了几种改善预测精度的方案。

The Bass model-based forecast for the Internet users in China is studied in this paper. A general description of the Bass model is first made, and then its parameters determined on the basis of the historical data and finally the forecast and error analysis made by using this model. The resulted forecast will give an approximate time when saturation of the Internet users arrives in China, providing a basis for the future bandwidth forecast. At the end, the scope of its applications and the parameter determination methods are given and several schemes for forecast accuracy improvement presented.