洞庭湖稻区黑线姬鼠种群数量预测

FORECASTING THE POPULATION DENSITY OF STRIPED FIELD MOUSE IN THE RICE AREA IN THE DONGTING LAKE REGION

作者于１９８６年１０月至１９９５年３月对洞庭湖稻区黑线姬鼠的种群数量作了逐月调查。根据１９８６年１０月至１９９０年５月在湖南省桃源和汉寿县调查的结果，应用逐步回归分析法建立了预测模型并预报了岳阳县１９９２年６月、１０月，１９９３年３月、６月、１０月，１９９４年３月、６月、１０月和１９９５年３月黑线姬鼠种群的发生数量。

We studied the population of striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius) in Taoyuan, Henshou and Chunfeng,Hunan province from October, 1986 to March,1995. The mouse population was forecasted with means of stepwise regression analysis, and the linear regression equation was obtained: Y=0 7966X 1+1 1149X 2-10 0921X 3-2 4019 (m=3, df =39, Sy=2 9364, R =0 8289 ) Where X 1:Cardinal number (Capture rate of March for the period of April to October; Capture rate of October for the period of November to March);X 2:Reproductive index (Litter size/Number of females);X 3:Age structure:Ⅲ ♀/ N;proportion of adult female to total number;Y:Forecasted month density two months later. We predicted the population densities of striped field mouse with the linear regression in June and October, 1992. March, June and October, 1993 and 1994. March, 1995. The predicted values matched with the real population densities of striped field mouse in the field.