外商直接投资对经济增长的短期和长期效应——浙江1983—2004年时间序列

SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH——ZHEJIANG CASE

1980年代以来浙江的外商直接投资迅猛发展。文章利用1983—2004年时间序列,分二个时段就外商直接投资对浙江经济增长的短期效应和长期效应进行实证分析。结果表明在这段时间里外商直接投资对浙江经济增长无论短期还是长期都有显著的促进作用,超前2年的浙江外商直接投资对浙江经济发展的长期供给溢出效应作用大于当年的浙江外商直接投资对浙江经济发展的短期需求拉动作用。无论从短期效应看还是对长期效应而言,后时段(1992—2004年)比前时段(1983—1992年)作用大。最后提出进一步吸引外资、促进浙江经济增长的政策建议。

Foreign direct investment （FDI） has been rapidly increasing in Zhejiang province, China since the 1980＇ s. Using time series in the period of 1983 - 2004, this paper estimates the short- term and long- term effects of FDI on the economic growth in Zhejiang province. It demonstrates that FDI growth has a positive and significant effect on Zhejiang＇ s economic growth in both the short - term and long- term. The long - term spillover effect of the prior two - year FDI on Zhejiang＇ s economic growth is larger than the short - term need - pull effect on Zhejiang＇ s economic growth. In both the short - term and long - term, the effect of FDI in the period of 1992 - 2004 is larger than that in the period of 1983- 1992. Finally this paper suggests new strategies and policy making to further attract FDI and increase the economic growth in Zhejiang.