重庆市国有储备土地需求预测

THE STUDY OF THE RESERVE LAND DEMAND FORECASTING IN CHONGQING

土地供求分析是建立适度的土地储备规模,促进城市健康发展的必要条件。对储备用地的适度规模进行预测可以建立在经营性用地需求和经营性用地的供给分析基础上,文章首先对重庆市都市圈房地产用地的需求进行了分析;接着依据供给制约需求的原则,对重庆市都市圈城市用地的可供性进行了评价,在此基础上提出了土地储备适度规模的计算模型。最后,对储备用地供应计划制定及农用地转用指标分解方法进行了探讨。研究所探讨的建立土地适度储备规模的原理与方法对指导储备用地的需求预测、制定土地储备计划和农用地转用计划具有理论和实践指导价值。

This paper illustrates simple techniques that can be used to forecast reserve land demand scale and formulate suitable plan of reserve land. As a case of Metropolitan Area in Chongqing, this paper forecast the real estate land demand based on the population and urbanization being valued. At the same time, supply constraints the demand like a bottleneck, the paper analysis the potential of reserve land in Metropolitan Area. The suitable scale model was discussed, and land reserve scale was forecasted in Metropolitan Area of Chongqing. Finally, the method to divide the land reserve plan by year and the task of land reserve was discussed. Generally, forecast techniques introduced here are simple, but they have farreaching significance to lead city land develolopnent and to urge city sustainable development,and they can be valuable and reliable for many urban regions.