中国农村劳动力外出的影响因素分析

Analysis of the Determinants of Rural Labor Migration in China

本文利用迁移理论从个体、家庭、社区和制度等多个层面对中国农村劳动力外出的影响因素进行了系统分析,提出了相关因素影响劳动力外出可能性的16个假设,并在此基础上建立了劳动力外出决策模型,利用中国农村住户调查34000户样本数据,对这些假设进行了实证分析。主要结论是:农民外出决策是多种因素共同作用的结果。对农民个体来讲,劳动力外出行为首先表现为人力资本竞争选择的结果;对于农民家庭来说,家庭相对剥夺感和市场流动性差增加了农民外出务工的可能性,新经济迁移理论在中国是实用的;对于家庭所在社区来讲,一个基础条件好和社会资本丰富的社区有利于推动农民外出,但过高的非农产业发展水平会降低本地劳动力外出的可能性;从制度层面讲,城乡二元结构及其相关的制度变革对中国农村劳动力流动产生了根本影响。

This paper focuses on the determinants of rural labor migration of China. Based on the analysis of main determinants of labor mobility and migration in China, a multi-level theoretical analysis frame is constructed. This analysis frame includes 16 hypotheses and more than 20 variables at individual, household and community levels as well as institutional variables. In order to prove these hypotheses, I constructed a probit model of labor moving-out decision and used half of sample data (34,000 households, randomly selected) of the Rural Household Survey (RHS) conducted by National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). Main conclusions are: the rural labor mobility and migration in China is an interaction product of multiple factors; In individual level, Migration labors are all selection results of human capital.; In family level, the migration is the result of household sharing contract, which is pointed out by New Economics of Labor Migration(NELM); Community development and social network influence migration decision from multiple aspects; Institutional variables are very important in explaining labor mobility and migration.