乘数效应的区际差异

Regional Difference of Multiplier Effects in China

本文测度各省四部门乘数及其差异。研究表明,各省乘数效应较小,存在“东部弱,中西部强”的区域特征;不同方法计算的乘数分布具有一致性。各区域存在不同的乘数发挥作用的阻塞因素。近年来乘数效应差异没有促进全国经济收敛而是加剧区域经济发散,且对东、中、西部地区收敛态势的影响不同。

With a four- sector model, this paper explores regional difference of multiplier effects in China. It presents that the provincial multipliers are small while they are poor in eastern and strong in mid - western regions respectively. The multipliers with different measuring methods take on similar pictures. The multiplier difference can not lead to regional economy convergence but to divergence in recent years while it puts different effects on different areas.