两个经典宏观经济关系在中国的检验

A Test of Two Classical Macroeconomic Relationships in China

本文用中国数据检验两个经典宏观经济关系:菲利普斯曲线关系和通货膨胀—货币增长关系。我们利用CF滤波研究发现,改革开放前后这两个关系在我国的表现有很大不同。改革开放前比较反常,而改革开放后的数据基本上证实了这两个关系:失业和通货膨胀之间的替换关系只是一种短期现象,在长期这种关系不存在;货币增长和通货膨胀在长期高度相关,而在短期这种相关性并不显著。

The Phillips curve relationship and the inflation-money growth relationship which are very classical in macroeconomic study are tested by China data in this paper. By using the CF filter, we found that the behavior of the two relationships are very different in China while regarding the reform and opening up as the dividing line. In pre-reform and opening up duration the behaviors are abnormal. However, these relationships are verified,in post-reform and opening up duration： the trade-off between the unemployment and inflation is only a short-term phenomenon, and it does not come into existence in the longrun; money growth and inflation is correlated significantly in the longrun, while this correlation is not significant in the short-term.