中美人民币汇率争论的政治学分析

Analysis on the Dispute on the Exchange Rate of RMB between China and US from the Perspective of Politics

汇率制度选择并非一个单纯的经济学问题,当汇率政策与其他宏观经济政策不协调时,是放弃既有的汇率制度安排还是改变其它宏观政策安排,往往必须考虑国内不同利益群体之间以及国家之间的博弈。从政治学角度来看,中美人民币汇率争论的实质内容是:美国政府基于其国内政治经济压力而试图对中国在寻求汇率制度安排的动态最优解时施加有利于自己的影响;中国政府则基于经济结构调整的艰难、维护稳定政治经济环境的需要和对渐进式改革的政策偏好等因素而力图按照自己的时间表进行人民币汇率形成机制改革。因此,中美人民币汇率争论是一个典型的汇率制度选择过程中的大国政治博弈案例。

The choice of exchange rate regime isn＇t simply a question correlating to economics. When exchange rate regime can＇t match other macroeconomic policies, abandoning the current exchange rate arrangement or changing other macroeconomic policies is usually influenced by the game existing not only among domestic blocs but also among countries pursuing their own interest. From the angle of politics, the essential of the dispute between USA and China on RMB exchange rate is as follows： because of political and economic pressure in the country, Bush administration tries to exert influence on Chinese government to take action that favors USA while Chinese government tries to find out dynamic optimal solution to exchange rate arrangement. Chinese government strives to reform its RMB exchange rate regime according to its own schedule, considering the reconstruction of economy, stability of politics and economy and preference of measured transition. Therefore, dispute between USA and China on RMB exchange rate is a typical case of political game between major powers during the process of choosing exchange rate regime.