道路交通事故多发地点统计鉴别与对策方法

Statistical Method for Identifying Dangerous Location and Countermeasures

基于我国道路管理特性,提出了道路交通事故多发地点统计鉴别的方法．首先将研究区域内道路划分为4类统计鉴别系统,将事故按严重程度划分为4个等级;然后根据泊松分布简便判定方法确定事故流的分布;最后根据交通事故流的泊松与非泊松分布特性,兼顾交通量、事故严重程度与经济损失、事故处治方的承受能力,采用定性与定量相结合的α-γ双指标确定高事故数与高事故率的边界值,使用高事故数与高事故率协同鉴别事故多发地点,并确定事故多发地点严重类型及处治对策．

It＇s important content to assess, identify and analyze dangerous location for road safety research. But until now, there is not a statistical method to identify dangerous location, which is based on a fine theoretical foundation, which is easy to use, suitable for any area. Based on the Chinese characters of road management, a statistic method for identifying dangerous location in an area or country is studied. Firstly, statistic road system is divided into four types and seriousness of accident is divided into four categories, in which indirect economic loss is included. Secondly, based on the simple Poisson distribution method, the distribution of accidents flow is determined. Lastly, according to the character of accident distribution, traffic volume, accident seriousness, economic loss and economic supporting, a nature and quantitatively determined double index is given to confirm limit values of high accident frequency and high accident rates. Dangerous location is determined by these two limit values. According to different high accident frequency and high accident rates, types of dangerous locations and their countermeasures are confirmed.