高校新校区建设贷款规模与还贷策略的博弈分析

Game Analysis of the Loan for Constructing New Campus and the Strategy for Replaying the Loan in Colleges and Universities

运用不完全信息博弈模型对高校新校区建设贷款规模进行分析,得出在政府埋单的预期下借贷规模会超出高校自身财务约束条件下的理性规模;利用高校利润模型,分析了还贷策略,指出政府必须与高校共同承担还贷责任;然后应用Rubinstein讨价还价模型对双方还贷比例进行了分析,并通过算例得出高校承担61.5%、政府承担38.5%是一个较为合理的还贷比例;最后给出了政策建议。

The loan for constructing new campus in university was studied by incomplete information game analysis. It was deduced that the loan size in the prospect of the government＇s imbursement would exceed the rational size restricted by university-self finance, through analyzing the loan size of new campus construction by game model. All ways of repaying were analyzed by the university profit model. It was drown that the government must share the liability with university. The debt proportion that government and university partake by Rubinstein-bargaining model was discussed and a reasonable proportion was got. university assuming about 61.5% and government about 38.5% of all by way of illustration. Some recommendations are also proposed.