基于层次分析法的中国外汇储备货币结构管理研究

Management of Currency Composition of Foreign Reserves Based on AHP Method

随着中国外汇储备规模的急剧膨胀,储备数量扩张与储备结构单一的矛盾日益突出。外汇储备货币结构的优化管理,就是在充分考虑外汇储备的保证支付、干预市场、保值增值等功能的基础上,合理地安排储备货币的内部结构,充分发挥外汇储备的功能。基于层次分析法的视角,将中国外汇储备货币结构管理视为一个多目标决策过程,并以一个AHP模型进行描述。模型的最优解表明:中国应适当降低美元所占比重,增加欧元及其他货币的比重,以实现其外汇储备货币结构的多元化。

While the foreign reserves in China have been surging dramatically in recent years, there are increasing contradictions between the scale-expanding and the composition unitary. The management of currency composition of foreign reserves aims at achieving an optimal currency allocation to guarantee the functions of foreign reserves, i.e., international payments, market intervention, maintaining and increasing the value etc. Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） method, the management of the currency composition of foreign reserves could be viewed as a multio-bjective decision-making process and described by an AHP model. The optimal solution of the AHP model indicates that the Chinese monetary authority should diversify the currencies in foreign reserves, i.e. , decrease the ratio of US dollars and increase the holding of Euro as well as other currencies.