滑坡稳定性评价的概率分析法

Appraisal on Landslide Stability by Probability Analysis Method

传统的数学-力学模型是通过确定的参数来进行滑坡体的稳定性评价,由于人们对地质体属性的了解是随机的、不全面的,因此对于模糊问题采用精确的数值来表达是不合适的,概率分析法则克服了这一缺憾。笔者应用概率分析法分析了岩村滑坡在3种工况下的破坏概率,并将其结果与剩余推力法的结果进行对比,结果表明两种方法得出的结论基本一致,并且概率分析法能更好地反映滑坡所处的状态。

The traditional mathematical-mechanical model is applied to calculating the safety factor of landslip by the certain parameters. But people cannot know the geologic body enough due to its complexity. So, it is improper to solve the fuzzy problems by the accurate numerical value. The probability aflalysis method is more advanced than the traditional way in this aspect. In the paper, the method was applied to analyzing the landslide of Yancun, and the result was compared with the factor of stability which was calculated by remained slip force method. The conclusion indicated that the two methods were basically coincident, and that the propability analysis method can represent the state of the landslide in a more scientific way.