工业轻重结构变化对能源消费的影响

Effect of Light-heavy Industry Structure Changes on Energy Consumption

本文应用因素分解方法，计算了1993-2005年工业部门内部轻重结构变化对能源消费和能源强度的影响，发现重工业比例每增加一个百分点，则能源消费增加约1000万吨标煤；总体上看，工业轻重结构的变化对工业能源强度和单位GDP能耗的影响小于部门强度因素，但近几年，重工业比例的增加对工业能源强度的影响很大，2003年工业能源强度反常上升，78％都可以归因于这一因素。在此基础上，笔者提出了一个能源强度分析的框架。

Applying decomposition method,the paper calculated the effects of light-heavy industry structure changes on energy consumption and energy intensity.One conclusion is that every additional one percent of heavy industry delivers energy consumption 1000 more Tce.The other conclusion is that the effect of light-heavy industry structure changes on energy intensity is less than the effect of the sub-sector s intensity;but the share increase of heavy industry has great effect on industry energy intensity in the se...