股票市场上的天时、地利、人和

Tianshi, Dili and Renhe in the Stock Market

本文借用我国古代朴素的系统论思想中的天时、地利、人和概念,建立起描述股票市场的系统模型。在模型中,天时为整个市场的周期性波动规律;地利是股票的优良的基本面状况;人和是市场中的人气、资金效应。作为不同层次的股票投资成败因素,天时、地利、人和三者在股票价值分布曲线模型上得到了统一。“天时地利人和”和“天时地利人和”两个相反的次序分别是基于收益和基于风险的次序。

Tianshi （climate）, Dili （favourablegeographicalposition） and Renhe （support of people） are factors in archaic system idea in China. They are used to describe the stock market in this paper. Tianshi is the uptrend of the whole stock market, Dili is the key of the excellent stocks, and Renhe is the congregating of the people and capital. This paper shows how Renhe influences stock price based on stock value distribution curve; Dili often makes Renhe be the excellent stocks; Tianshi is just Renhe for nearly all stocks in a market. The following two opposite preference orders, ＂Tianshi 〉 Dili 〉 Renhe＂ and ＂Renhe 〈 Dili 〈 Tianshi＂, are the preference orders based on risk preventing and profit winning respectively.