TRAMO/SEATS在危机事件中对旅游影响研究的应用

The Application of TRAMO/SEATS Model to Measure the Impact of Crisis Events on Tourism

国内外对旅游危机事件的研究集中于管理方面,近年相关热点转向对旅游影响的研究。以往定性研究多,从经济数量模型进行定量分析研究的较少。本文使用在经济金融领域使用广泛的ARIMA改进版——TRAMO/SEATS方法评估危机事件,如疾病、地震等突发事件对中国旅游业的影响。作为欧盟各国统计局主要统计方法,TRAMO/SEATS方法能够最大程度地反映旅游业季节性波动的特点。通过该方法对2003年在中国内地和香港地区爆发的SARS进行实证研究,分析评估该危机事件的长期影响。在此基础上提出,国家短期内应当通过提高产品质量和拓展高质量的细分市场实现旅游效益型增长;恢复后期才可以推出更为直接的促销手法实现旅游数量型增长,采取刺激旅游人数快速增长的政策和措施。

Study of tourist crisis events used to be concentrated on management both at home and abroad. However, the related hot topics have shifted to the study of impact on tourism recently. In the past there were more cases on the study of qualitative method, but fewer cases on quantitative analysis from economic quantitative model. This paper adopts widely-used TRAMO/SEATS to evaluate crisis events, such as disease and earthquake that have had great impact on China＇ s tourism industry. TRAMO/SEATS model-major statistical method used by European countries that can best reflect seasonal fluctuation of tourism industry has been adopted in the paper. A demonstrative study on the outbreak of SARS in manland China and Hongkong area in 2003 was carried on to evaluate the long-term impact of this crisis event. Based on this, the state should increase tourism benefits by upgrading product quality and expanding high-quality segmental market. After recovery, the state could carry on more direct promotion and adopt policy and measures to stimulate the rapid increase of the number of tourists.