宏观经济管理中的牛鞭效应及其实证

Bullwhip Effect and Its Experimental Analysis in Macro-economics Management

牛鞭效应是供应链中上下游企业订货量波动的一种固有规律,它不仅存在于单个供应健中,而且存在于整个宏观经济管理中。本文在定量分析牛鞭效应的形成机理的基础上,实证分析了它在宏观经济产、供、销上的存在性,有关结论对科学地进行宏观经济管理有一定指导意义。

Bullwhip Effect is an inherited feature in the movement of ordered goods between up stream and down stream enterprises in supply chains. It exits not only in single supply chain but also in whole macro-economics management. Based on quantitative analysis of how bullwhip effect is formed, we experimentally analyzed how it presented in macro-economics among goods＇ production, supply and sales in this paper. Some conclusions are useful for scientific management in macro-economics.