趋势面分析法在肺癌死亡率地理分布研究中的应用

Application of the trend-surface analysis for studing the geographical distribution of lung cancer mortality

目的应用趋势面分析法为肺癌死亡率的空间分布规律提供一些线索。方法简述趋势面分析法的原理、具体的操作步骤，利用中国第二次全国死亡调查资料及全国各个省市（区）的地理位置，建立不同性别肺癌死亡率的趋势面函数，选择合适阶次的趋势面函数并做趋势等值线图，进行残差分析并做残差分析图。结果建立了男性肺癌死亡率的五阶趋势面函数（拟合优度为76．06％）以及女性三阶趋势面函数（拟合优度为89．77％），残差分析提示上海、湖北和天津存在男性肺癌死亡相对增高的因素；浙江、安徽、河南、北京和广西存在男性肺癌死亡相对降低的因素。天津、湖北和广东存在女性肺癌死亡相对增高的因素；浙江、山西、贵州、海南、河南、吉林和内蒙古存在女性肺癌死亡相对降低的因素。结论不同性别的肺癌死亡率空间分布规律是不同的，男性肺癌死亡率东北地区最高，女性肺癌死亡率东南地区最高，其中某些异常点有待于进一步的研究，将对肺癌危险因素的研究提供一些线索。

Objective To apply trend-surface analysis on lung cancer mortality in China. Methods To overview the theory and approach of trend-surface analysis and to fit the first to fifth order regression equations, where dependent variables were latitude and longitude, and the independent one was the standardized mortality ratio （SMR） of lung cancer for various provinces. Data was from the second mortality survey in the whole country, then proper regression equation was chosen. Results Fifth-order regression equation was established for mortality of lung cancer in males with its fit goodness as 76.06 %. The third-order regression equation was established for mortality of lung cancer in females with its fit goodness as 89.77 %. There were positive residuals in Shanghai, Hubei and Tianjin, while the negative residuals were in Zhejiang, Anhui, Henan, Beijing and Guangxi for males. There were positive residuals in Tianjin, Hubei and Guangdong, while negative residuals appeared in Zhejiang, Shanxi, Guizhou, Hainan, Henan, Jilin and Neimenggu for females. Conclusion The geographic distribution trend of lung cancer mortality between males and females appeared to be different. The mortality of lung cancer among males was high in the northeast provinces while the mortality of lung cancer for females was high in the southeast areas. In those areas where the residual values were anomalous, further studies need to be carried out.