试论日美同盟的生命力

The Vitality of the U.S.-Japan Alliance

同盟的生命力主要取决于同盟所面临的“威胁”的明确性和强度、同盟成员国相互关系的紧密程度以及同盟成员国内部主张结盟的政治势力的地位。冷战结束以来,日美同盟经过短暂的“漂流期”以后获得新的定义,同盟的生命力日趋增强。其主要因素是:日美双方逐步明确同盟所面临的共同“威胁”特别是所谓“中国军事威胁”;日本政府尤其是小泉政权的极度亲美政策导致日美关系的紧密化;日本国内政治保守化与美国国内新保守主义抬头的互动。从长期看,日美同盟并非铁板一块,它与日本走向“普通国家”的目标既有相一致的一面,又有相矛盾的一面。如何应对日美同盟的调整,争取实现中国追求和平发展所需的周边安全环境,成为中国外交的重大课题。

The vitality of an alliance mainly depends on the clarity and strength of the “threat” the parties face, the closeness of the relationship among the alliance members, and the domestic political power of the alliance advocates. After a brief “drift,” the U.S.-Japan alliance has been redefined since the end of the Cold War. In particular, the vitality of the alliance has been enhanced by the following factors: China has gradually become a common “threat” for Japan and the United States after the emergence of the Koizumi administration; Japan’s very pro-American policy in the war against terrorism and the war in Iraq have promoted an internal institutionalized alliance; and the rise of conservatism in both countries has made the alliance more offensive. However, the reinforcement of the U.S.-Japan alliance, especially Japan’s increased burden-sharing role, has increased uncertainties in regional security, introducing more variables to the triangular relations among China, Japan, and United States and making more difficulties for regional security regimes that might ameliorate the security dilemma over the longer term. Nevertheless, due to the complexities and uncertainties in the regional security situation, as well as the different interests that Japan and United States have regarding Japan being a “normal country,” the U.S,-Japan alliance is not a monolithic bloc. Certainly, the U.S.-Japan security alliance will be one of the most critical diplomatic issues for China in the process of its peaceful development.