不同机动车控制场景下人群健康效应及其经济学评价

Economic valuation of public health impact of ambient air pollution under various scenarios of traffic policies in Shanghai

目的分析不同机动车尾气控制场景下的健康效应和相应的经济学收益。方法运用健康危险度评价和经济学评估的方法进行健康效应和经济学收益的分析。结果和2004年基准年相比,2008年未采取任何控制措施的基础场景(BAU)和严化排放标准合并旧车淘汰措施场景(KJ2)的完成将分别减少654和1891人(均值)死于PM10相关性疾病,伤残调整寿命年(DALYs)收益达到8 717-25 198个健康寿命损失年,经济收益达到1．472 5-4．256 5亿美元。在2020年,BAU和KJ2场景的完成将分别减少464和3114人(均值)死于PM10相关性疾病,DALYs收益则达到了6 188-41 509个健康寿命损失年,经济收益则达到了1．045 3-7．0118亿美元。结论在不同的机动车控制场景下,上海市由于大气质量改善所带来的居民健康收益及其经济收益是相当可观的。

Purpose To provide a quantitative estimate of the health effects and related economic benefits associated with various scenarios of traffic policy in Shanghai. Methods Health-based risk assessment and related economic estimation were used to quantitatively analyze public health effects and economic benefits of traffic-related air pollution. Results The results showed that traffic policy could have significant impact on the future health status of Shanghai residents. Compared with the year of 2004, the implementation of BAU and KJ2 scenarios in 2008 could cause a decrease of 654, and 1 891（mean value） PM10-related deaths respectively in the meantime. The DALYs loss was 8 717- 25 198 and the economic loss could reach 147.25-425.65 millions U.S. dollars （mean value）. In the year of 2020, the implementation of BAU and KJ2 scenarios would result in a decrease of 464 and 3 114 PM10-related deaths （mean value）. The DALYs loss was 6 188-41 509 and the economic benefit would reach 104.53-701.18 millions U. S. dollars （mean value）. Conclusions Evaluation of the health and economic benefits associated with air pollution improvement under various scenarios of traffic policy has revealed potentially high social benefits and can be used in further cost-benefit analysis for policy-makers.