标准农田规划空间决策支持模型的研究与实现

Developing a Spatial Decision Support Model for High Quality Prime Farmland Planning

在中国工业化与城市化进程加速的背景下,部分地区耕地的质与量难以得到保障,因此迫切需要在平衡粮食安全与经济社会增长的基础上对其做出科学规划,而空间决策支持模型的建立有助于该规划的编制。基于对标准农田规划过程的分析,将模型的概念框架分解为以下三个步骤:①构建标准农田资源评价模型:利用群体层次分析法和土地适应性评价模型评估标准农田资源;②构建标准农田规划备选方案生成模型:采用0￣1整数规划模型生成若干标准农田规划备选方案;③构建标准农田最优规划方案决策模型,采用非确定型决策模型辅助评价选取最优规划方案。文章对概念模型的规范化过程进行详细探讨,最后以浙江省桐庐县石阜镇为实验区,对模型进行实现和初步验证。

A spatial decision support model is built to facilitate and optimize agricultural planning for high quality prime farmlands. These high quality cultivable lands are critical for food supply in China. In recent years, these lands have experienced a rapid decline due to the demand of socio-economic development. In order to protect these lands, an effective and reasonable agricultural plan is necessary to balance between the security of food supply and the demand of economic growth. A spatial decision support model is used to assist this planning process. The planning process is divided into three segments： （1） assessment of the quality of present lands, （2）identification of planning scenarios for the best use of farmlands, （3）final design for farmland planning. The first segment is completed using methods of group analytical hierarchy process and spatial overlay analysis. For the second segment, several planning scenarios are generated using an integer programming model based on the assessment of land quality. The third segment is completed using non-deterministic decision methods to evaluate each scenario and determine the optimum design. The final plan is evaluated by comparing land use practices with the models, which are proved to be successful and effective in land use planning and decision support in recent decades.