基于Logistic回归模型的北京山区农村居民点变化的驱动力分析

Analysis of the driving forces of change of rural residential areas in Beijing mountainous areas based on Logistic regression model

农村居民点变化的驱动力研究是农村居民点内在演化规律研究的重要组成部分,可科学指导当前农村居民点整理活动。该文以北京山区为研究区域,基于GIS以及相关数理统计软件,使用Logistic回归模型从空间角度深入分析了农村居民点变化的内部和外部驱动力。研究结果表明农村居民点变化是在原有居民点的分布基础上,以一定的自然、区位等内部驱动因子为背景,受社会经济等外部驱动因子的综合影响而发生。可以认为农村居民点变化是一个由其自然资源条件、区位可达性及社会经济基础条件综合影响下的区位择优过程。应依据不同区域驱动因子的不同发展态势,探寻不同的农村居民点整理模式,加强新农村建设过程中农村居民点用地的管理。

The study on the driving forces of rural residential land can instruct the consolidation of rural residential area, which is an important part of the study of inner law of rural residential area evolvement. Taking the Beijing mountainous area as study area, the driving forces of rural residential area change was analyzed based on GIS and SPSS using the logistic regression model by view of spatial coherence. The result indicate that the change of rural residential area is controlled by its former distribution and droved by the exterior driving forces under the interior driving forces context such as natural factors and location comprehensively. The change of rural residential area is a process that selecting the preferable location integrating the influence of the nature, local accessiblity and social-economy. The developing orientation of its driving forces is made to probe into the suitable consolidation modes in different localities, which will help to strengthen the management of rural residential area during the construction of new socialist countryside.