一种模糊推理事故预测方法及其应用

An Accident Predicting Method by Fuzzy Inference and Its Application

提出了一种以模糊模型辨识为核心，以模糊综合评价为辅助手段的事故预测方法。该方法先对生产过程进行模糊辨识，建立一个合适的模糊模型，以此为基础实现事故模糊预测，并利用模糊综合评价技术对预测结果进行处理，给出事故类型及程度。介绍了这种方法在某离子膜烧碱生产系统的应用，效果良好，预报准确率接近90％，为企业带来潜在的经济效益。此方法在其它大型连续生产过。程中同样具有应用价值。

An accident predicting method consisting of fuzzy model identifi-cation as its core and fuzcy iomprehensive judgement as its aukiliary means is pre-sented. on the basis of fuzzy identification of production processes an appropriatemodel is established for accident fuzzy predicting and the predicted results are pro-cessed by utilizing fuzzy comprehensive evaluating techniques, eventually repre-senting the nature and degree of accident. The application of the present method ina production process of ion film caustic soda shows that tbe percent accuracy ofprediction approaches to 90%,achieving positive results and bringing potential e-conomic benefits for enterprise. The present method is worth applving to otherlarge-sized continuous processes as well.