21世纪上半叶技术科学发展预测——基于两种数学模型的比较分析

Forecast about development of Technological Sciences in the first half of 21st century——a comparative analysis based on two mathematical models

根据对“技术科学”范畴的统一界定,较完整地统计出文艺复兴以后所出现的各种技术科学学科。在绘制技术科学发展的时间序列特征曲线基础上,分别建立起技术科学学科数在时间过程中的增量模型和累积量模型;在全面分析技术科学发展特征与规律的基础上,对21世纪上半叶技术科学的发展趋势作系统预测,并对两种模型的比较结果进行初步探讨。

According to the definition of ＂technological sciences＂ from our studies, this paper based on the ＇statistical data of technological science subjects after the renaissance, proposes two mathematical models and forecasts the development of technological sciences in the first half of 21st century. Some characters of ＂technological sciences＂ are discovered, and some discussions about the conclusions are given by the two models.