北疆界限温度10℃初日变化及其对作物物候期的影响

The Varieties of Beginning Date of 10℃ and its Influence on Phenophases in Northern Xinjiang

用1971—2005年北疆31个气象站的界限温度10℃初日资料和乌兰乌苏站的物候期资料,分析了对冬小麦及柳树、杨树物候期的影响。结果表明,北疆界限温度10℃初日越来越早,进入90年代以来偏早的趋势更加明显。10℃平均初日北疆的2个迟中心,分别位于和布克赛尔和北塔山附近,初日出现较早的区域在博乐至石河子的北疆沿天山一带和伊犁地区。石河子10℃初日早的年份,积温高,日照充足,冬小麦的各平均生育期普遍提前2～19d,其中起身期提前19d,全生育期提前7d;柳树的各平均生育期普遍提前9～19d,其中展叶盛期提前19d。杨树的各平均生育期普遍提前4～12d,其中展叶盛期提前12d。

Based on the data of beginning date of 10℃ from 1971 to 2005 at 31 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang and the data of Phenophases in Wulanwusu agricultural Meteorological Station,analyzed its Influence on the phenophases of winter wheat , willow and poplar. The results showed that the beginning date of 10℃became earlier and earlier , which is especially evident in 1990s. The characteristics of spatial distribution of the beginning date of 10℃ showed that there are two late-centers, which situated Hebukesaier and Beitashan respectively . The beginning date of 10℃ appeared earlier along Tianshan mountain in Northern Xinjiang and in most part of the Yili region. In the year when the first-day occurs earlier in Shihezi region, the accumulated temperature is higher and the sunshine is sufficient, the average developmental stage of winter wheat was put forward 2 - 19 days, the erecting stage and whole growth stage occurred 19 days and 7 days earlier respectively. Each developmental stage of trees was also brought forward significantly： the average developmental stage of willow and poplar was put forward 9 - 19 days and 4 - 12 days and their full leafing stage was put forward 19 d and 12 days respectively.