电力市场下电源投资规划的动力学分析模型

Dynamics Model of Generation Investment Planning in Electricity Market

电力市场下,电源投资主体多元化,电源投资建设完全受市场供需平衡自发调节,表现为一个复杂的非线性动态系统,因此该文建立动力学模型分析电源投资规划。文中首先建立电源诱发投资分析模型,并进行求解,在对解进行数学分析的基础上,得出不同需电量增长模式对电源投资的影响。在此基础上,文中进一步建立区域电源投资的动力学分析模型,并同样进行求解和分析归纳,得出了区域内电源的初始发电量,自发投资和诱发投资的数量关系等影响因素对区域电源投资的影响方式和影响程度。最后,应用该文的模型对南方某省电源投资进行算例分析,验证该模型的正确有效。

With multiplication of investment entities, generation investment is regulated spontaneously by the balance between demand and supply entirely in electricity market. It features a complex nonlinear dynamic system. So a dynamics model was constructed to analyze generation investment. Firstly, a motivated investment model was made, solved, analyzed and concluded that different increasing pattern of the demand would affect investment differently. Secondly, a dynamics model of one regional generation investment was built, solved and analyzed. It showed what factors affected and how they did on the generation investment in the region. Lastly, a case study of the generation investment in one province was given to show the validity of the model and the method.