北京环境库兹涅茨曲线假设的验证

Verifying the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis and its Conditions in Beijing

城市在我国国民经济和社会发展中的地位举足轻重,其高速的经济增长带来了巨大的资源消耗与环境压力。2005年北京人均GDP突破5 000美元,处于工业化中期和重化工阶段。在这一特定发展阶段和北京举办奥运会的背景下,如何通过综合决策,推动北京的资源消耗和污染排放同经济增长尽快达到解耦具有重要的现实意义。针对上述问题,本文利用环境库兹涅茨曲线(Environmental Kuznets Curve,EKC)假设,以北京为例验证EKC假设及其条件。本文采用北京市1990-2004年间的序列数据建立计量模型,解析十类环境指标的EKC演变轨迹和阶段特征。验证表明:除工业废气排放量和工业固体废弃物产生量呈N形外,其它环境指标呈下降或倒U形,即已跨越了EKC顶点正逐步实现解耦。本文引入了“强度EKC曲线簇”,通过确定不同城市在该坐标系中的相对位置来比较城市间的耦合状态。在此基础上,本文利用PSR(Press-State-Response)政策分析框架,从环境政策、产业结构和技术进步探讨了北京EKC演变的驱动因子。

The city plays a significant role in the economic and social development in China. However, the rapid economic growth of the city has been followed by the enormous resources consumption and great pressures on the environment. In 2005, the per capita GDP exceeds $ 5000 in Beijing, which equals the one in mid - period of the industrialization and in the heavy - industry. Beijing is in the period of the special development and in the background of holding the Olympic Games 2008, which makes the issue significant that impels the decoupling between the resources consumption, the environmental emissions and the economic growth through the integrated decisions. Taking Beijing as a case, this paper aims to verify the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis and its conditions. This paper builds up an econometric model using the data in Beijing during 1990 - 2004, analyzing the trace of EKC evolution and stage characteristics for ten types of environmental indicators. It shows that except that industrial waste gas emission indicator and industrial waste solid indicator are shown as N-shape, all other indicators are decreasing or inverted U-shaped. This shows that the environmental indicators have surpassed the EKC peaks and slowly step into the decoupling. Furthermore, we introduce the definition of ＂intensity EKC cluster＂ and compare the harmonious state by determining the relative positions of different cities in a coordinate. Using the Press-State-Response （PSR） policy analysis, we further discuss the driving elements for Beijing＇ s EKC evolution from environmental policy, industrial structure and technology development.