基于高程的环境库兹涅茨曲线实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curve on Elevation:A Case Study of Air Pollution in Chongqing City

本文利用GIS的空间分析技术,以高程带为取样单元,研究在高程带上三种主要的大气污染物与经济发展之间的定量关系。以重庆市为例,验证环境库兹涅茨在高程上是否存在。研究结果发现,污染物浓度随高程的增加呈非单调下降的趋势,人均GDP随高程的增加先增大后减小。在高程上,污染物浓度与经济发展之间的关系和两者在时间序列和国别(或地区)序列上环境库兹涅茨曲线研究的结论相似。其中,TSP和NOx分别与人均GDP之间呈较稳定的呈“N”形和倒“U”形关系,受人口密度和高程影响较大;而SO2与人均GDP之间关系不稳定。

By the spatial analysis technology of GIS, this paper samples TSP （Total Suspended Particulates）, SO2 （ Sulfur Dioxide） and NO2 （Nitrogen Oxides）, and economic development （represented by per capita GDP） along the elevation, and analyses the correlation between the concentrations of the three main air pollutants and per capita GDP. Taking Chongqing city as an example, the objective of this paper is to validate whether the EKC （Environmental Kuznets Curve） is true or not along the elevation. The result shows that the concentrations of pollutants are not monotonously degressive along with increasing of elevation, and that per capita GDP increases, then decreases. Along the elevation, the relationship between concentrations of pollutants and economic development is similar to ones of other researches along time series or countries （regions）. Furthermore, the relationship between concentrations of TSP and per capita GDP appears the shape of N, and the relationship between concentrations of NOx and per capita GDP appears the shape of U inverse. But these two relationships are affected by population density and elevation. However, the relationship between concentrations of SO2 and per capita GDP is not steady.