灰色GM(1,2,M,N)在地面沉降预测中的应用

Application of Grey Model GM(1,2,M,N) in Land Subsidence Prediction

通过分析地面沉降过程与地下水开采量之间可能存在的时滞性以及非线性关系,将原有的灰色GM(1,2)模型改进为灰色GM(1,2,M,N)模型。通过对天津市塘沽、汉沽以及大港三区的沉降实例进行计算,发现新的模型能够较好地拟合和预测历史沉降过程,并且预测结果合理。

A grey model GM （1,2） is modified as GM （ 1,2, M, N） based on analysis of possible time-lag effect and non-linear relation between ground subsidence and groundwater extraction. The new model is used to calculate the land subsidence in Tanggu, Hangu and Dagang districts of Tianjin municipality. The result shows that the new model can felicitously fit and predict land subsidence process.