区域贸易安排的保护性:引力模型

The Protectionism of Regional Trade Arrangements: Gravity Model

通过2000-2005年EU、APEC、NAFTA三个区域贸易组织双边贸易流量基于合并数据的引力模型得出结论:三个区域贸易组织的净贸易效果均为贸易转移,但区域保护程度顺次减弱。总体上,发生贸易转移的方向从以发达国家为主的区域贸易组织转移到以新兴市场国家为主或由发达国家与发展中国家共同组成的区域贸易组织。因而,对内积极推行自由贸易,对外具有很强的贸易保护倾向是各国推行区域贸易政策的显著特征。

This paper examines the trade creation and trade diversion between EU, APEC and NAFTA which many developing countries involved, using an expanded gravity model based on panel data. Resulting from these RTAs formation, thenet trade effects of them are all trade diversion, though their intensity decreases in turn. Generally speaking, this paper brings evidence in favor of the idea that South-South RTAs or North-South RTAs are more attractive destination from trade diverting than other RTAs which included a good many of developed countries. Consequently, trade policy is obviously characterized by paralleled contents of intra-regional free trade while extra-regional protecting trade among RTAs.