“繁华预期”、流动性变化和资产价格

Optimistic Expectation,Liquidity and Asset Prices

"流动性载体"转换成购买力或变现而形成"流动性",这一过程中发生的"流动性变化"可能对资产价格产生影响。我们提出四个思考函数,渐进研究流动性载体-流动性-流动性变化-资产价格变化的逻辑关系,形成以全部金融资产为基础的有关流动性的整体分析框架。实证检验发现投资者"繁华预期"的作用已对市场流动性变化产生重要影响,并是当前资产价格波动的主要原因,由此提出了创造环境、促使理性预期的形成,加强民生风险管理、切实保护中小投资者权益等相应政策思考。

This paper proposes a new framework to analyze the impact of liquidity on asset price. The authors study liquidity vehicle, liquidity, liquidity change, and asset price change in order. The empirical study finds that traditional liquidity factors such as money supply and monetary policy does not explain the stock market volatility in recent years. Optimistic expectation of individual investors plays the major role in recent asset price hike. Policy implication follows that forming rational expectations and protecting the rights of individual inves- tors in stock markets should be the core consideration.