江西省主要农业气象灾害预测和决策服务系统的研究及应用

A Study on the Agrometeorological Disaster Forcasting and Decision Service System and its Application in Jiangxi Province

研究了影响江西省粮棉油生产的６种农业气象灾害的预测方法，分析了灾害对江西省粮、棉、油产量的影响。在灾害预测的基础上，用Ｂａｙｅｓ多级判别分析方法对下一年度的早稻、晚稻、棉花和油菜产量年景进行预测，利用系统工程学原理，根据粮、棉、油定购价格、政府部门的宏观调控政策、客观气象条件所决定的粮、棉、油产量年景等约束条件，建立粮、棉、油种植面积合理配置的决策模型。

Six methods for forcasting agrometeorological disasters in Jiangxi Province were studied and the effects of these disasters on rice, cotton and rape production were analyzed. On the basis of disaster forcasting, Bayes multidiscriminant method was used to predict the next years yield trend. A decision model for the rational allocation of planting areas for rice, cotton and rape was developed by taking into consideration of government purchase prices, macro regulatory policies and the yield trends of these crops, and relevant agrometeorological management measures were proposed.