三峡库区耕地动态变化驱动力研究——以涪陵区为例

A Study on Driving Dynamic Change Forces of Cultivated Land in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region——The Case of Fuling District in Chongqing City

利用涪陵区1980～2004年长序列耕地统计数据及相应的社会资料、经济资料，宏观分析了该区耕地的变化趋势和现状。应用相关分析和因子分析，对影响涪陵区耕地数量动态变化的自然条件、人口状况、社会经济发展水平、农业科技发展水平、非农业建设占地5类驱动要素进行定量分析，揭示出耕地变化的驱动机制。在此基础上，运用多元回归分析构建1980～2001年耕地变化回归模型，估算出相同驱动要素影响下涪陵区2002、2003、2004年的耕地面积，与实际耕地面积相比较，分析这三年临时性、变动性大的退耕还林还草、国家减负和提高粮食价格的政策驱动要素对相应时期耕地数量变化的影响程度，从而完善驱动机制的研究。研究内容和分析结论可对三峡库区农业可持续发展提供借鉴。

Using the long sequence statistical data of cultivated land of Fuling district and the corresponding social resources and economic resources during the period 1980～2004,the change trend and current status of the cultivated land of Fuling district are micro-analyzed. Employing correlation analysis and factor analysis, it quantitatively analyzes five kinds of driving forces such as natural conditions, population status, the level of social and economic development, the level of agricultural science and technology development, and non-agricultural use of basic farmland. These driving forces influence the dynamic change of the cultivated land of Fuling district. And it reveals the driving mechanism of the cultivated land change. On this basis, it establishes the regression model of cultivated land change between 1980 and 2001 by using multiple regression analysis, and estimates the cultivated land area of Fuling district influenced by the same driving forces in 2002, 2003 and 2004, respectively. And then comparing the estimated area with the actual cultivated area, it analyzes the effect of such political driving forces as turning the cultivated land back into forests and grasslands, reducing the agricultural burden and raising the grain price on the quantitative change of cultivated land in these three years. Consequently this improves the study on the driving mechanism. The research contents and analysis conclusion can offer reference to the sustainable agricultural development of the Three Gorges reservoir region.