极端降水事件变化的观测研究

A Review on Study of Change in Precipitation Extremes

回顾了气候变化背景下的极端降水事件变化观测研究的主要进展,结合全球变化的特点,重点讨论了中国极端降水事件的变化特征。指出:最近50多年,我国降水强度普遍趋于增加,降水日数除西北地区外其他大部分地区显著减少。极端降水与总降水量变化之间的关系很密切,西北西部、长江及长江以南地区极端强降水事件趋于频繁,华北地区虽然极端降水事件频数明显减少,但极端降水量占总降水量的比例仍有所增加。连阴雨产生的年降水量在华北、东北东部和西南东部地区明显减小,在青藏高原东部和一些东南沿海地区则增加。降水日数和微量降水日数减少是近年来我国干旱化趋势发展的一个重要特点。

Based on review of the main progresses in precipitation extremes under the background of global wanning, this study discusses the character of change in precipitation extremes. It indicates that during the recent 50 years, in most parts of China, the number of precipitation days has decreased significantly except in Northwest China, while the precipitation intensity has increased significantly. In North China, the precipitation extreme has decreased, but the proportion of extreme precipitation to the total has increased relatively; the intense precipitation extreme has become frequently in the western Northwest China, over and to the south of the Yangtze River. The annual precipitation amount from wet spells has decreased significantly in North China, eastern Northeast China and the eastern part of Southwest China, but increased in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and some southeast coastal areas. The number of days of trace precipitation has decreased is an important drought tendency. The relationship between extreme precipitation and total precipitation is very complicated under the impact of climate wanning.