21世纪西北太平洋台风变化预估

Projections of Typhoon Changes over the Western North Pacific Ocean for the 21st Century

对近年多个气候模式考虑不同的人类排放情景作了总结,并对21世纪西北太平洋台风变化作了预估。研究表明,集成多个气候模式考虑人类排放情景,预估到21世纪后期,西北太平洋年总编号台风数可能减少,但强台风数及其降水和风速可能增强。需要强调的是,台风的长期预估是极其困难的,存在极大的不确定性,有待作更深入的研究。

It is summarized the projections of typhoon changes over the western North Pacific Ocean for the 21 st century in the recent years. Multi-model ensembles with the various human emission scenarios indicate that the total numbers of the annual typhoons simulated over the western North Pacific Ocean might decrease by the end of the 21 st century. But the numbers of the strong typhoons simulated and the intensities of their wind speed and precipitation might increase at the same time. It must be emphasized that the long-term projection of the typhoons is a very difficult issue, the further studies will be conducted in future to narrow the gaps and uncertainties. The mechanisms and feedbacks between the human activities and typhoon changes should be investigated in detail.