多阶段任务系统任务持续能力数学评价模型研究

PMS Mission Sustainability Mathematic Evaluating Models

分析了多阶段任务系统（PMS）及任务可靠度、可信度和任务效能等任务持续能力评价参数。结合实际装备系统大部分属于可用马尔可夫过程进行描述的可修复系统的特点，为简化模型复杂程度提出了一些合理的假设条件。针对两状态PMS，通过分析其状态转移关系，从阶段任务成功概率和阶段任务间转换概率的概念出发，分析给出其计算方法。结合对可信度和任务效能等参数的分析结果，建立其计算模型，从而建立了多阶段任务系统任务持续能力数学评价模型。最后结合常见的“靶场打靶”任务，通过对比仿真结果进行了模型的实例验证。

Phased-Mission System （PMS）and its mission sustainability evaluating parameters which inelude mission reliability, dependability and mission effectiveness are analyzed. In view of the characteristics that weapon systems mostly belong to repairable system which can be described with Markov process, some hypotheses are given for predigesting the complexity of models. Then, by analyzing state transfer relations of two-state PMS, calculation method of Phased - Mission success probability and its convert probability are given from their conception. Combined with anterior analysis result to dependability and mission effectiveness, their calculation models and PMS mission sustainability mathematic evaluating models are established. Example validation is given with target practice by contrast on simulation result.