东亚经济体汇率制度选择:基于博弈论视角的分析

东亚金融危机凸现了该地区汇率制度不匹配以及区域协调机制的缺失。本文运用博弈论分析法探讨东亚经济体汇率制度的最优选择,合作博弈与非合作博弈分析显示在短期,和共同钉住货币篮相比,各自独立钉住货币篮更能提高各国的福利。从长期来看,在各自钉住的基础上实现共同钉住货币篮,建立区域性汇率安排和协调机制是东亚各国汇率制度改革的方向。

The financial crisis in east Asia expose the false of the exchange rate regime in this area as well as the short of the coordination mechanism. The text uses the game theory to probe the optimum exchange rate arrangement in Asia. The ceopemting and the non- cooperating game theory demonstrates that in the short - term it is suitable for every economy of East Asia to choose pegging to the monetary basket independently at present, and move forward progressively on this basis, set up regional exchange rate arrangement and coordination mechanism, peg to common monetary basket . realize optimum exchange rate arrangement in the long -term,