中国对外贸易的向量误差修正模型

VECM of Chinese Foreign Trade

对外贸易与经济增长关系一直是经济研究中的热点问题,在对外贸易取得了长足发展的今天这一问题显得更加重要。本文对相关的研究文献进行了评述,并采用四个变量系统的VAR模型和VECM模型,对我国对外贸易、产出和投资的关系进行了实证研究,实证结论证明了对外贸易对经济增长不管是长期还是短期都存在正的影响,并提出了改变对外贸易增长方式和鼓励进口的政策建议。

The relationship between foreign trade and economic growth is a hotspot issue in economic research all the time and it looks more important in the days of quiet great progress of foreign trade. First this paper summarized the correlative literature; than based on the VAR model and VECM model including 4 variables, we made empirical research on the relations between foreign trade, GDP and investment and made a conclusion that in the shot run and in the long run the foreign trade has a positive influence on economic growth; finally a policy suggestion was made about changing the economic growth mode and inspiring import.