建模台湾经济增长的周期行为:1961—2004

Modeling the Growth Cycle of Taiwan's Econony:1961-2004

2001年是民进党执政的首个年份,但在该年台湾经济即出现了罕见的衰退,目前外界普遍认为台湾经济正处于复苏阶段,但相对之前的稳定增长而言,台湾经济的前景出现了很大的不确定性。本文为获取台湾经济增长的周期性规律,采用包含3状态的M arkov状态转换模型对台湾的经济增长的季度数据进行建模和分析,实证结果表明,台湾经济当前处于中速增长阶段,再次进入衰退或高速增长的可能性均较小。

Since the last rare recession in 2001, the prospect of Taiwan＇s economy has been very unclear compared to the past stable growth. In order to set the periodic rules of its economic growth, this paper applies the Markov Regime Switch Model to analyze the seasonal dataset of growth rate. It concludes that Taiwan＇s economy is in the period of middle - speed growth, and the possibilities that it shifts into recession again or into high speed growth are both very low.