利用地震矩和实时概率模型对中长期地震危险性进行评价——以东昆仑和阿尔金断裂为例

Middle and Long-Term Seismic Risk Evaluation Based on Seismic Moment and Real-Time Probabilistic Model——Exemplified by the East Kunlun and Altun Faults

运用地震矩和实时概率模型,分别对东昆仑断裂带和阿尔金断裂带上的几个断裂段进行了地震危险性评估,得到的概率数据都属于小概率事件范围,说明未来100年内,这两个断裂带各段上发生与其历史上大小相当的地震的可能性很小。

The seismic risk evaluation is carried out on several segments of the East Kunlun and Altun faults by using the seismic moment and real-time probabilistic model. The values of the calculation are in the range of smallprobability events. This indicates that it will be little possible to occur the earthquake with the magnitude similar to the historical events on the East Kunlun and Altun faults in following 100 years.