摘要
应用趋势型指数平滑模型根据其观测值的数据特点(具线性趋势),选取趋势型二次指数平滑的线性预测公式和相应at,bt的计算公式及合适的平滑系数值进行计算,预测了某市滑坡区5号监测点的位移量。预测结果表明,该方法应用于斜坡变形位移的预测,可使预测值与实际位移值之间的误差很小。
Exponential smoothing is an efficient method for forecasting and decision-making. The forecasting model of exponential smoothing to forecast the displacement at Observation Point 5 of certain city hazardous landslide is applied in this paper. According to the characteristics of observation forecast formula with linear trend of the twice exponential smoothing, appropriate formulae calculating at, bt and suitable exponential smoothing value are selected and used to make a forecast. The forecast results show that the errors between the forecast values and the observation values are very little. And it shows that this model may be well applied to the forecast of the displacement in the deformation of slopes.
出处
《中国工程科学》
2007年第6期94-97,100,共5页
Strategic Study of CAE
基金
湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(03JJY3088)
关键词
指数平滑
预测边坡位移
自适应过滤
exponential smoothing
forecasting slope displacement self-adaptive filtering