基于市场信号的竞争反应预测

The competition response prediction based upon market signal

市场信号作为表达企业与竞争对手间意图、目标的行动或暗示,传递着或清晰或模糊的信息,对于竞争对手间的竞争反应互动有着不可忽视的影响。竞争企业在对某一特定竞争行动做出反应之前必然要对该行动所包含的信息进行接收、解释和判断。结合市场信号理论可构建竞争反应预测模型,并归纳出竞争反应发生可能性最高、可能性最低、反应速度最快和最慢的几种组合。通过探寻管理者对复杂形势的实际思考方式,可简化竞争反应的预测过程。

As the action or hint of intention or goals between enterprises and their rivals,market signal transferring clear or dim information plays a significant role in terms of competition response interaction.Before making response to specific competition action,competing enterprises are bound to receive, understand,and judge the information contained in the action.Based upon the market signal theory,a competition response prediction model is established in this paper.Several types of combination such as the highest and lowest probability,the fastest and slowest response speed under which competition response occurs are studied.Through the exploration of the practical ways of managers thinking about complicated situations,the process of predicting the competition response is simplified.