内蒙古自治区建设用地需求量预测方法探究

Preliminary Studies on Methods to Predict Demand Quantity of Construction Land in Inner Mongolia

在内蒙古自治区土地利用总体规划前期工作的基础上,对预测建设用地需求量的方法进行初步探讨,并对内蒙古自治区2010年的建设用地需求量进行预测.结果表明,在GDP(X1)、固定资产投资(X2)、城镇化水平(X3)和城镇人口(X4)4个因素的共同影响下,建设用地需求量的预测模型为Y=85.729-0.018X1+0.017X2+1.428X3+0.007X4,预计2010年内蒙古自治区建设用地需求量为152.257万hm2.

Based on the integrated planning of land use programming performed in Inner Mongolia, methods to predict the demand quantity of construction land were studied. The results showed considering the factors of GDP,fixed assets investment, urbanization level and population, the model of predicting the quantity of construction land demand should be Y=85. 729-0. 018X1 ＋0. 017X2 ＋ 1. 428X3 ＋ 0.007X4, the quantity of construction land demand in Inner Mongolia is intended 1 522 570 hm^2 in 2010 year.