基于误差预测修正的负荷预测研究

Research on Load Forecasting Based on Predicted Error Amendment

电力系统负荷预测对电力系统的可靠和经济运行意义重大。国内外学者对负荷预测理论做了大量研究,提出了许多预测方法。基于这些方法,提出了一种有辅助和修正作用的措施——误差预测修正,即通过对预测产生的误差进行预测和分析,形成预测修正模型,再结合原预测模型预测负荷,以扩大原模型的适用范围和提高它的预测精度。最后通过算例,验证了该方法的科学性和实用性。

Load forecasting is significant to the stable and economical running of power system. The theory of load forecasting has been researched for a long time, and a lot of forecasting methods are proposed. Based on these methods, an assistant and amendatory measure called Predicted Error Amendment is proposed. A forecasting amendment model is established by analyzing the predicted errors. The coverage is enlarged and the forecasting precision is improved by forecasting load with the original predicted model. The rationality and practicability of this method are proved by an example.