人民币汇率制度改革之路

A Feasible Route for RMB Exchange Rate System Reform

目前我国面临着巨额贸易顺差和国内通货膨胀的双重压力,在我国现行的人民币汇率制度下,这是典型的内部均衡与外部均衡的冲突。从长期来看,灵活的、浮动的人民币汇率配合以开放的资本市场将有利于中国经济的持续发展。本文对人民币汇率制度进行了研究,认为我国可以采用两步走的战略来退出目前相对固定的人民币汇率制。

Facing huge balance of payment surplus and internal inflationary pressures, China has been in a classic conflict between internal and external balance under its present RMB exchange rate. Over the longer term, however, a flexible and floating exchange rate system combined with the opened capital market will be needed for sustainable growth of Chinese economy. Therefore, it is necessary for China to find a feasible way to exit from the present RMB exchange rate. The paper proposes a two- stage approach for the reform of RMB exchange rate system.