威海地区年降水量的时间序列分析

Time series analysis on annual rain-fall of Weihai

通过应用时间序列分析技术,对威海地区1959-2002年降水量序列进行分析,证实年平均降水量序列满足ARIMA(1,1,(1,11))模型,并通过该模型对威海地区的2003-2007年降水量进行了预测分析。

This paper discusses the annual rain - fall series of Zhanjiang since 1959 through 2002 ,which mainly applies the time series technology, approves that the rain - fall series satisfies the ARIMA（1,1（1,11）） model, then forecasts and discusses the future rain - fall with this model.