浅析城市发展走向成熟期的前景

On Prospect of Urban Development Reaching Its Maturity Period

从影响城市发展走向成熟期的关键因素出发,用情景分析法对中国城市化发展到成熟期的基准情景、协调发展情景、风险情景进行了分析,得出了中国城市化发展到成熟期的3个阶段,从而对中国的城市化提出了选择走效益型道路、打破体制性障碍、关注城市群发展和注意向高级阶段转变的对策和建议。同时对杭州市城市发展何时达到成熟期进行了判断。

Referring to the key factors that influence the maturity of Chinese urban development, the methodology of scenario analysis is employed to study the benchmark scenarios, coordinated development scenarios as well as risk scenarios in the maturing process of Chinese urban development. It is concluded that there are three stages for Chinese urbanization to grow mature. Suggestions and strategies are put forward for Chinese urbanization to follow, the road of efficiency and benefit, break systemic barriers and paying attention to the city cluster development as well as the transformation towards higher stage. Also the thesis predicts when the urban development of Hangzhou can reach its maturity period.