改进GM(1,1)模型在特装修理费用预测中的应用

Application of Improved GM(1,1) in the Expenses Forecasting of Special Equipments Maintenance

基于灰色系统GM(1,1)模型理论,用改进后的预测模型预测海军舰船特装修理费用,可充分开发并利用少量数据中的显信息和隐信息,避免复杂的相关关系,克服了原始数据的离散性,得到高精度的预测结果,以某型舰船特装修理费用为例,建立了预测模型,并进行了中短期预测,结果表明,其精度优于传统模型。

Based the gray system theory, an improved GM （ 1, 1 ） model is presented and used to forecast the mending expenses of navy vessel special equipments. The discreteness of original data is overcome and the high - precise predicted result is received under the condition of a small amount of data. This paper takes a short - term forecast according to the mending expenses of vessel special equipment. The result implies that it＇s superior to the traditional model.