青藏高原东北边缘牧区气候变化及其对畜牧业的影响

Climatic change over the grassland in the northeast border of Qinghai Tibetan Plateau and its influence on animal husbandry

利用青藏高原东北边缘的甘南高原牧区草原牧场气候资料和牧业生态定位观测资料及统计资料,分析青藏高原东北边缘的甘南高原牧区草原牧场气候变化特征及其对畜牧业的影响。结果表明,青藏高原东北边缘的甘南高原牧区大部分区域降水量年际变化呈下降趋势,降水量的年际变化存在6～7、15 a的年周期振荡特征。气温年际变化趋势呈上升趋势,增温速度均大于全国增温速度。20世纪70年代之后持续偏暖。草地年干燥指数变化呈显著上升趋势,使牧区草场产草数量和质量下降,劣等牧草、杂草和毒草的比例越来越高,草场生产力进一步下降。由于冬、春季气温升高,降雪减少,牧区雪灾趋于减少,牲畜死损率呈明显的下降趋势。幼畜成活率1984年之后持续在一个较高水平上。

Using main meteorological and animal husbandry eco-environment observational datum in the grassland of the northeast border of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,the climatic change and its influence on the animal husbandry in the grassland of the northeast border of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau were analyzed. The results showed that in the northeast border of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, the annual precipitation tended to decrease and fluctuated with three periods, 6-7 years and 15 years. The mean annual temperature was remarkably warmer than other area of China; a constant rise of annual temperature was seen after 1970s. The mean annual aridity index of the grassland tended to increase. The pasture production decreased and weeds and poisonous weeds increased with the climatic warm and dry. Since temperature rose and snowfall had decreased in winter and spring, the annual death rate of livestock tended to decrease and the annual survival rate of young animals tended to increase.