北京市火灾风险综合评估指标体系研究

Study on Comprehensive Assessment Index System of Urban Fire Risk in Beijing City

针对北京市火灾的特点,通过对北京市1995—2004年的火灾统计资料的分析,结合我国火灾分类分级及前人的研究成果,建立了北京市火灾风险的多层次评估因素集。运用模糊数学的理论和方法,建立了火灾综合评估指标特征值、隶属函数及权重的确定方法。根据模糊综合评价原理,提出北京市火灾风险的模糊综合评估模型,并应用该模型进行实例分析。通过所建立的综合评估指标体系,可在消防管理中实现管理重点更加突出、力量部署更为合理、资源分配趋于最优,对北京市综合减灾目标的实现,具有重要的参考意义。

Depending on the analysis on the fire statistics of Beijing City from 1995 to 2004, and combining with China＇s fire disaster classification and grading system as well as the predecessors＂ research achievements, a multi-layer factor set for fire risk assessment in Beijing city was established. Methods for calculating factor eigenvalues, membership functions, and factor weights were accomplished by using the principles and methods of fuzzy mathematics. As a result, a fire risk assessment model for Beijing City was proposed according to the fuzzy assessment principle; and then an illustration was done by using this model. By taking advantage of this established fire risk assessment system, the management of fire protection resources and the allocation and deployment of firefighting force can be optimized, which plays a significant referential role in fulfilling the goal of loss prevention and control in Beijing City.